U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran beginning on February 28, 2026, sparked a wide-reaching regional conflict. Iran launched retaliatory attacks on a range of targets throughout the Middle East and attempted to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz via threatened and actual attacks on commercial shipping and naval vessels. The United States and Iran agreed to an April ceasefire and signed a June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end the conflict and negotiate a broader settlement, but the MoU collapsed weeks later amid renewed fighting and formally expired in August 2026. As of September 2026, the United States and Iran are again trading limited strikes amid a redoubled U.S. sanctions campaign and efforts by regional countries to restart diplomatic engagement. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in September 2026 that U.S. military operations have cost $38 billion as of August 1, 2026. A September 2026 Lead Inspector General report relayed a Pentagon assessment that U.S. forces’ munitions expenditure “has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munition resupply.” In announcing the onset of U.S. strikes in February, President Donald J. Trump said that the U.S. goal was to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” U.S. officials articulated specific military objectives, including destroying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and program; destroying Iran’s navy; and ensuring that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon. President Trump also framed U.S. and Israeli military action as potentially serving to weaken the regime enough to facilitate its collapse or overthrow by a popular revolt. Iran’s Islamic Republic (led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose predecessor and father Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28) has faced unprecedented leadership and material losses but remains in power despite the country’s deteriorating economic situation. Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance either in person or via media recording since taking office. As of September 2026, much of the conflict has come to center on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian threats and attacks on commercial shipping effectively halted traffic in the earliest days of the conflict, leading to large and potentially compounding disruptions to the global markets for oil, natural gas, and other commodities that transit the Strait. Traffic levels have since ebbed and flowed as the United States and Iran have cycled through periods of conflict and diplomacy. The conflict raises longer-term questions about the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East, with the United States reportedly considering changes to its military force posture across the region. The conflict is already reshaping regional security dynamics, as governments reassess their defense ties (including the formation of new multilateral arrangements) and weigh the potential benefits of continued or enhanced cooperation with the United States against the potential for retaliation, economic disruption, and domestic uncertainty that may be associated with continued confrontations with Iran. Potential developments in the conflict include the following possible scenarios, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive: Prolonged Low-level Conflict. The status quo of low-level recurring conflict could persist for as long as the United States and Iran each assess that they can bear its economic, military, and political costs longer than the other. Uneasy Ceasefire. Because of economic or other pressures, U.S. and Iranian leaders could conclude that the cost of continuing military action bears diminishing returns and decide to cease hostilities without a broader agreement. Expanded Military Action. U.S. or Iranian leaders (or other actors) could expand military operations. The nature, scope, and implications of such a scenario could vary depending on whether U.S. or Iranian leaders decide to extend or expand the volume of strikes or types of targets selected, or if the United States chose to introduce ground forces in Iran’s territory. Iran’s escalation options are limited but could include damaging strikes on critical infrastructure and globally important energy facilities in Arab Gulf states. Negotiated Settlement. Both sides could assess that their interests are better served by a formal agreement; given previous U.S.-Iranian diplomacy, the viability of such a settlement would likely depend on each side’s perception of the agreement’s terms and their implementation. Fall of Iranian Government. Military action, plus a redoubled U.S. sanctions effort and naval blockade, could create conditions more favorable to the weakening or collapse of the Islamic Republic. The fall of the Islamic Republic could lead to multiple outcomes, including a new government and/or a more chaotic situation. Depending on developments, Congress may assess U.S. priorities and deploy various legislative and oversight tools to support, reject, or seek to modify the Administration’s approach to Iran and the region. Present and potential future issues for Congress include proposed U.S. arms sales to regional partners; supplemental appropriations; the restriction or authorization of the use of U.S. military force; oversight of possible negotiations and resulting agreements; and U.S. sanctions.
Full content not yet available.